So who else thinks China is on the rise?
Thanks to hundreds of subscribers (and new subscribers) for visiting our China Stock Digest exhibit at the Orlando World Money Show. Frankly, of the thousands of people we met, not everyone was bullish on China. But that shouldn’t be too surprising considering the treatment China has had in the mainstream media lately.
“What about all those closed factories?” visitors would ask us. “What about those angry demonstrations in southern cities?” “What about the slowdown in GDP?”
We couldn’t emphasize enough the fact that America’s GDP plunged at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008. That’s the worst quarterly showing since 1982. By contrast, China’s GDP continued to grow at a 6% rate.
China and the U.S. are racing in opposite directions. But sometimes people just don’t pay attention to the statistics.
Stock market watchers should be impressed by the stunning performance of the Shanghai Composite Index which tracks 300 of China’s largest companies. The SCI 300 is up a whopping 36% from its low in October. Every western stock index has gone in exactly the opposite direction.
Stocks traded in China are certainly booming now but most ADRs are still struggling (along with depressed western stocks). The makings of a China stock rally are already in the works on the mainland but the U.S. investors we met in Orlando are still fixated on the beating they have taken on most American stocks. A few thought we were crazy to suggest China could rally before America.
So who else thinks China is on the rise? Well, how about that icon of American technology, Cisco Systems? Although the company is slashing jobs around the world, Cisco Systems says it will keep its promise and invest $16 billion in China in the coming five years. Obviously Cisco sees China as a major growth engine for the future.
How about one of the giants of American fast food, Yum Brands. The operator of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell admits that its fourth-quarter net income slipped 12% in its latest financial statement. But Yum Brands’ sales grew 15% in the China division and 9% around the rest of the globe. The company expects 70% of its profit to come from outside the U.S. in 10 years, compared with 60% today.
Also, China’s auto industry has now roared ahead to become the second largest on the planet. Having left Japan in the dust, the Chinese car market is on track to accelerate past the slumping U.S. auto trade to become the biggest in the world.
Clearly China Stock Digest subscribers are not going crazy when they see future growth coming from Asia, and in particular from the world’s most populous country, China. It’s true that our model portfolio is mostly in cash because of the extreme and ongoing negative effects of U.S. volatility on China’s ADRs. Unfortunately, it’s just not possible for foreigners to invest in the rebounding Shanghai Stock Exchange.
China may be on the cusp of a U.S. stock turnaround. Unfortunately, our biggest competitor called that turnaround too early and that newsletter’s subscribers lost heavily by going out of cash and investing in China a month and a half ago. Investors took a bath and they let us know in person how angry they were with competing China stock newsletters.
Some of our own subscribers told us they’re anxious to get out of cash and start making money on China’s rebound. We are too.
When the turnaround in China’s ADRs happens, it will be a quick move and we don’t want to miss the upside. Keep your eye on your email inbox or get in touch with us for our new voicemail alert system.
But for the moment, patience is the name of the game as we wait for a real turning point, not a false bottom of the sort that cost subscribers to competing newsletters so much money. Stay tuned.
Thanks to all of our subscribers, friends and our new subscribers for getting to know us in person last week at the Orlando World Money Show.
Committed to your PROFITS from China,
Jim Trippon, Editor in Chief
China Stock Digest
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Hello Jim,
I’ve just recently followed your blogs and very timely information.
In truth, I really like it and people should be listening to someone on the ground who knows what’s going on over there.
In fact, I’ve already moved my funds over there along with my son’s. But the biases about that part of the world still persist.
Well, all I can say is, let them languish until they realize it hurts too much to hang on to losing plays.
Thank you very much. I’ll reccomend your blog to my readers!